Workshop on Improving Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting to Support Water Management

The Western States Water Council and the California Department of Water Resources cosponsored a recurring workshop to continue a dialogue among western states, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the research community on improving sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) precipitation forecasting to support water management decision-making. 

Improving precipitation forecasts at lead times longer than a two-week weather forecast would support many water management activities, including preparedness and response to drought conditions that are again gripping much of the western U.S.  Workshop presentations will include recently developed experimental research forecast products for California and the Colorado River Basin, predictability analyses, the status of efforts to begin a western pilot project to improve forecasting, model development activities, and examples of needs and potential applications for improved forecasts.  

AGENDAS2S Workshop Agenda 


May 17
David DeWitt – Legislative and Programmatic Drivers for Improving Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Precipitation Forecast Skill
Matt Switanek –
Improving Cool-Season Precipitation Forecasts Across CONUS and the West
Chuck Collum – Law of the Colorado River, Current Conditions 2022
Michael Anderson – Seasonal to Interannual Prediction in a Dynamic Climate
Jeanine Jones – Motivation for Improving Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting
Joe Barsugli – Colorado River Drought, Past, Present, and Future

May 18
Angel Munoz – Winter Precipitation Scenarios for the Western United States:  Bridging Subseasonal and
Seasonal Forecasts
Phil Mote – A Changing Climate in the Klamath Basin
Duane Waliser – Overview of Predictability & Experimental Forecasting Work for California & the Upper Colorado River Basin
Mike DeFlorio – Understanding Relative Skill of Experimental S2S Forecasts
Xianan Jiang – Why seasonal prediction of California winter precipitation is challenging?
Gudrun Magnusdottir – Atmospheric Drivers in California Precipitation Transitions
Agniv Sengupta – Exploring an Evolution-centric Statistical Technique for Improving Seasonal Prediction Forecasting
Agniv Sengupta
S2S Prediction of Winter Precipitation:  Exploring Novel Statistical and Machine Learning Methods
Sarah Baker – Potential for Incorporating S2S Forecasting in USBR Colorado River Basin Modeling
John Lhotak – Challenges Applying S2S Forecasting to Hydrology

May 19
Cary Talbot – U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Water Management Perspectives on Improving S2S Precipitation Forecasting
Andy Robertson – S2S Weather Regime Prediction
Nelun Fernando – Texas Water Development Board’s Experience with Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts and the Upcoming FIRO Pilot Project
Emerson LaJoie – CPC’s Experimental Water Year Outlook Tool
Jay Jasperse – Lake Mendocino Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations
David Rizzardo – S2S Precipitation Forecasts & Snowmelt Runoff Forecasting

MEETING FACILITYDoubletree by Hilton San Diego Downtown, located at 1646 Front Street, San Diego, California 92101.



May 17 - 19 2022


Doubletree by Hilton San Diego Downtown
1646 Front Street, San Diego, California, USA

The event is finished.