Improving Drought Prediction at Seasonal to Inter-Annual Timescales Workshop – Presentations


Improving Drought Prediction at Seasonal to Inter-Annual Timescales

Sponsored by
Western States Water Council and California Department of Water Resources
Cooperating Organization
Western Governors’ Association

April 29 – May 1, 2013
Doubletree San Diego Downtown
1646 Front Street, San Diego, CA

Monday, April 29

11:00       Registration

1:00         Welcome and Opening Remarks, Workshop Purpose & Desired Outcomes

Tony Willardson, Western States Water Council (WSWC)
Jeanine Jones, California Department of Water Resources (CDWR)
Jim Ogsbury, Western Governors’ Association  (via phone)

1:30         National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Activities and Reauthorization

Robin Webb, ESRL Branch Chief, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

2:00         Other Federal Activities 

NOAA Drought Taskforce Activities, Annarita Mariotti, Climate Program Office, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration  (via phone)
Spring Sub-seasonal Prediction for Reservoir Operations – Levi Brekke, Water and Climate Research Coordinator, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

3:00         Drought Prediction:  Good News (and Other News)

Martin Hoerling, Meteorologist, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration  (via phone)

3:30         Break

3:45         The Colorado River Basin Drought – How Much Longer Will it last?

Michelle Stokes, Hydrologist in Charge, Colorado Basin River Forecast Center  (via phone)

4:15         Potential Interstate Cooperation on Irrigation Scheduling Data

Kent Frame, Program Manager, California Department of Water Resources

5:00         Adjourn

6:00         Reception – Cash Bar

Tuesday, April 30

7:30          Continental Breakfast

8:30         State Perspectives on Drought Prediction

Jeanine Jones (2), Interstate Resources Manager, California Department of Water Resources
Don Ostler, Executive Director, Upper Colorado River Compact Commission
Tracy Streeter, Director, Kansas Office of Water
John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas State Climatologist

10:15       Break

10:30       Opportunities With Existing Information

Exploiting Indicator Information – Anne Steinemann, Visiting Researcher, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Regional Hydrological Extremes Assessment System – Joshua Fisher, Scientist, NASA Jet Propulsion Lab
Exploring Hydroclimate Time Series – Kelly Redmond, Regional Climatologist, Western Regional Climate Center/Desert Research Institute

12:00       Lunch

1:00         Synergies/Relationships With Other Forecasts/Predictions

Seasonal Wildfire Prediction – Tom Rolinski, Meteorologist, USFS Riverside Fire Prediction Center
Operational NWS Forecasting – Alex Tardy, Meteorologist, San Diego Weather Forecast Office

2:00         Predicting Wet Conditions to Predict Dry Conditions

HMT’s Progress on Atmospheric River Storms – Marty Ralph, ESRL Branch Chief, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Atmospheric Rivers as Drought Busters: Past, Present and Future – Mike Dettinger, U.S. Geological Survey, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Interannual Variability & Climate Transitions – Mike Anderson, California State Climatologist, California Department of Water Resources
Soil Moisture Measurement Needs – Mike Strobel, Director, National Water & Climate Center, NRCS

3:45         Break

4:00         Small Group Break-Outs to Discuss Potential Ways to Improve Drought Prediction

5:00         Adjourn

Wednesday, May 1

7:30         Continental Breakfast

8:30         Report Back From Break-Outs and Discussion

Breakout Group 1
Breakout Group 3

9:15         Drought Economic Impacts and the Value of Improved Predictive Ability

Midwestern Agricultural Drought – Mark Svoboda, National Drought Mitigation Center
Urban Water Agencies – Jeff Mosher, Executive Director, National Water Research Institute
Small Water Systems – Michael Sims, Circuit Rider, California Rural Water Association

10:30       Break

10:45       Where Do We Go From Here?  (facilitated discussion)

11:30       Action Items and Closing Remarks

12:00       Adjourn