Improving Long-Range Weather Forecasts (Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting)

The Western States Water Council and the California Department of Water Resources cosponsored a recurring workshop on improving the skill of long-range weather forecasts (sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) precipitation forecasting), to support water management decision-making.  The agenda will include lessons learned from recent years’ seasonal outlooks, updates on scientific research on sources of skill and predictability, and programmatic efforts to improve forecasting.  Increasing forecast skill will require a sustained investment over time, prioritizing the federal resources necessary to make progress, and a specific focus on the West.



Opening Remarks
CDWR S2S May 2017 Workshop – Tony Willardson, Western States Water Council
WSWC S2S Workshop Background – Jeanine Jones, California Department of Water Resources

Seasonal Forecasting and the Western United States_May2017 – Mike Anderson, California Department of Water Resources
Forecasting Precipitation for Winters of 2016 and 2017 and Associated Science Challenges – David DeWitt, National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center
Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations  (Lake Mendocino) – Jay Jasperse, Sonoma County Water Agency
Why Improve a Forecast? (Roosevelt Dam) – Charlie Ester, Salt River Project
Water Conservation at Prado Dam – Greg Woodside, Orange County Water District

THURSDAY, MAY 18, 2017

– Fred Toepfer, NWS Office of Science & Technology Integration
Transforming NOAA Water Resources Prediction – Tom Graziano, National Weather Service, Office of Water Prediction
Potential for Improved S2S Forecasts of the North American Monsoon in the Southwest U.S. – Chris Castro, Univerity of Arizona
Atmospheric Rivers: West-WRF Forecast Evaluations and AR Summaries – Marty Ralph, UC San Diego
Atmospheric River Prediction for Western US in the Context of Global Weather/Climate Models – Duane Waliser, NASA Jet Propulsion Lab
Seasonal Prediction of Atmospheric Rivers and the ENSO – Hyemi Kim, Stony Brook University
California from Drought to Deluge – Simon Wang / Robert Gillies, Utah State University
Related S2S Operation: Forecasting Prolonged Inversions – Robert Gillies, Utah State University
Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecast Rodeo – Levi Brekke, u.S. Bureau of Reclamation Research & Development
Predictability of Eastern Montana Flooding Event – Meredith Fish, UC San Diego
North Dakota 2011 Flood Event – Damon Grabow, North Dakota State Water Commission
Current and Future Research to Advance Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction – Robert (Robin) Webb, NOAA ESRL
Feb 17 Anomaly in California – Alex Tardy, NWS, San Diego Weather Forecast Office

FRIDAY, MAY 19, 2017

Impacts of Improved S2S Forecasts on Truckee – Carson Basin Operations – Shane Coors, Precision Water Resource Engineering
Kansas Reservoirs – Nathan Westrup, Kansas Water Office
Technological Advances, The Power of Big Data – Scott Sellars, UC San Diego
California’s Recent Drought — A Word About Lead Time – Jeanine Jones, CDWR